Show the work
How every number here is calculated
Nobody should be asked to act on a number they can't check. This page gives the source document and the arithmetic for every figure on this site — and states plainly the two places where we are still confirming.
The charter conditions · verbatim
Conditional charter issued March 30, 2026, period ending March 31, 2027. Four membership benchmarks, plus one further condition the plan carries:
| Condition | Deadline |
|---|---|
| Achieve at least 1.5% growth in total unit-based membership vs. October 1, 2025 | October 1, 2026 |
| Achieve a 65% retention rate coming out of recharter | Recharter cycle |
| Start 4 new units | Apr 1 – Nov 1, 2026 |
| VP of Membership + a Membership Committee of 10+, a Council & District Growth Workbook and a 2026 Recruitment Plan | In progress |
| Train and empower volunteers and field staff to execute on measurable, agreed-upon growth goalsCondition “2 / 6” — not a membership benchmark, and not tracked in this app until the September 2026 audit surfaced it. | Charter term |
Source: 2026 Membership Recruitment Plan (VP of Membership — Conditional Charter Response). Progress is reviewed monthly by CST 1 volunteers.
The council number
Baseline (Oct 1, 2025) …………… 2,627
× 1 + 1.5% ……………… 2,667 (the target)
− Current (Aug 2026) …………… 2,337
= 330 youth needed by October 1, 2026
“But 1.5% of 2,627 is only 40 youth. Why 330?”
Because the 1.5% is measured against where we stood on October 1, 2025 — and we have lost ground since then. We have to climb back up before any of the growth counts. The 330 is two things stacked:
2,627 − 2,337 = 290 ← just to get back to the Oct 2025 baseline
2,667 − 2,627 = 40 ← the actual 1.5% growth on top
290 + 40 = 330
So roughly nine-tenths of the work is recovery, not growth. That is the real cost of the last twelve months, and it is why this is not a normal recruiting year.
The 2,627 baseline is Aloha Council's figure for Sept 30, 2025. The 2,337 current figure is Total Unit-Based Membership for August 2026 FINAL, from the Council Dashboard read September 1, 2026 after the month closed. The charter calls 1.5% a floor; the recruitment plan sets a +3% stretch goal.
This number is moving, in our favour. The page showed a gap of 431 on a hand-entered 2,236. Reading the national dashboard directly gave 2,306 on Aug 25, 2,330 on Aug 31, and 2,337 at the August close. The gap is now 330. August has now closed at 2,337; September is open and reads 2,332 as of Sept 1. The dashboard reports closed months and labels open ones.
Your unit's two numbers · they answer different questions
1. Your Oct 1 share — the seven-week ask
(your youth ÷ 2,147 youth in tracked units) × 330, minimum 1
Proportional to size: a unit with 20 youth owes 3; a unit with 60 owes 10. This is the charter number.
These add to 372, not 330 — about 3% over. The “minimum 1” is why: 26 small units would otherwise round down to zero, and no unit should be told its share is nothing. We would rather ask for eleven too many than hand two dozen units a pass.
2. Your 12-month goal — staying alive as a unit
expected losses over 12 months + (your youth × 5%)
A bigger number, because it replaces a full year of normal attrition on top of growing. Aging out, Webelos crossover, and PCS moves are inside it. Hitting Oct 1 doesn't make a unit healthy; this does.
Being straight about this: the 12-month goals across all units add to far more than 330 — roughly a thousand. That is not an error. One is a seven-week charter benchmark; the other is a year of sustainability for every unit, and most attrition lands at recharter in December–February, after Oct 1. When we say "about four per unit," we mean the Oct 1 share.
Expected losses
Two methods are computed, and the worse one is used:
A. Council retention actuals: your youth × (1 − retention rate for your program). Packs 46.6%, troops 79.1%, all others 60.9% — 2025 council actuals from the 2026 Membership Plan.
B. Your own measured trend: youth lost since Dec 31 as a rate, compounded from 8 months to 12, then applied to today's roster.
Result: max(A, B), rounded up, hard-capped at the youth you actually have.
The cap matters: an earlier version extrapolated raw counts and told an 11-youth pack it would lose 42. A unit can never lose more youth than it has, so the rate is applied to the current roster and capped. Every unit page shows this arithmetic under "How this was computed."
Activity yields (join night ≈ 6 joins, open-house table ≈ 2, peer push ≈ 2) are conservative planning assumptions from the council Fall Recruitment Guide, not measured results. They will be replaced with actuals as units log event outcomes.